DECATUR - Decatur may have experienced one of the largest population losses in Illinois since 2000, but officials say better news is just around the corner, if it isn't already here. Population Estimates for Illinois metro areas

Craig Coil, president of the Economic Development Corporation of Decatur and Macon County, questions the latest estimate showing the city's metropolitan area lost nearly 5,400 people, or 4.7 percent of its population, since the last 10-year census was taken.

"This doesn't make any sense to me," Coil said. "Caterpillar alone has created 1,600 jobs in the last 24 months, so we should be seeing population growth by now."

Instead, estimates released today by the U.S. Census Bureau indicate the Decatur metro area dropped by another 526 people between July 1, 2005, and July 1, 2006 - to 109,309 - after losing similar numbers the previous two years.

By contrast, three other metro areas in Central Illinois continued to grow, with Bloomington-Normal posting the largest increase of more than 7 percent in the past six years.

Tom Hamilton, city manager of Bloomington, credited a diversified economy for keeping the city growing, even as Mitsubishi Motors cut more than a third of the local plant's work force in 2004. "It used to be as State Farm (Insurance) went, McLean County went, but that's not true anymore," he said.

The good news for Decatur, however, is that recent losses are only about half the size of those that came the first years of the new millennium, the largest being 1,378 people, or 1.2 percent, between 2002 and 2003. Closures of manufacturing plants, including Bridgestone/Firestone Inc.'s in 2001, are thought to be largely responsible.

Mayor Paul Osborne said he, too, was surprised the estimates showed the Decatur area's population continued to decline but was pleased to hear it was a smaller loss.

"I think we've pretty well bottomed out," Osborne said. "Now I would expect to see the number to stabilize where it is and start moving in the other direction. I'm anxious to see what the number is next time."

Across the nation, more than four-fifths of 361 metro areas in the United States had a larger population on July 1, 2006, than on April 1, 2000, with the vast majority of the 50 fastest-growing ones evenly distributed between the West and the South. Sioux Falls, S.D., was the lone metro among them located entirely in the Midwest.

Chicago-Naperville-Joliet, Ill.-Ind.-Wis had the 10th largest numerical growth in the nation, adding 407,133 people for an estimated population of 9,505,748 last July 1.

As for areas in Central Illinois with populations between 10,000 and 50,000, the estimates indicated Charleston-Mattoon's 3.9 percent population loss to 61,949 people since 2000 followed Decatur's pattern, while Effingham showed a small loss for the second consecutive year after four years of similarly small gains. The latest estimate is 34,429 people.

Norma Lansing, president of the Greater Effingham Chamber of Commerce & Industry, pointed to the closure of Quebecor World printing plant in 2004 as the major reason for the dip.

But now she's looking forward to the opening of a FedEx truck terminal in the next year, among other projects, and isn't worried.

"I think we had a little hitch," Lansing said. "I don't really see it as a major concern."

Charleston-Mattoon officials also expressed confidence about the future, although the two interviewed by the Herald & Review had different reasons.

Doug McDermand, executive director of the Coles County Regional Planning & Development Commission, said he has seen a steady level of business investment that of late has all but tapped out a revolving state-federal loan fund he manages for the city of Mattoon.

"I keep seeing investments that retain 10 jobs and create three or four more," he said. "Mattoon and Charleston have both seen growth in the number of commercial permits to expand buildings."

Further brightening the picture, McDermand said, are that Mattoon is a finalist for a FutureGen experimental power plant that could create 1,000 construction jobs and 200 permanent ones, and that American Clean Coal Fuels is pursuing plans for a coal-to-diesel plant near Oakland that would create 600 jobs.

Jeff Finley, a Charleston city planner for the past 23 years, said the Census Bureau projected population declines for the city before the 1990 census and the 2000 census and were wrong both times because more former Eastern Illinois University students stayed in the area than expected.

"I'm saying Charleston's population is up slightly from the 2000 census," Finley said. "I'm pretty skeptical about the bureau's estimates."

For population estimates, Census Bureau demographers estimate household and group quarters separately from administrative records such as registered births and deaths, federal income tax returns, Medicare enrollees and military movement.

Because most of this information lags behind the current estimate year by as much as two years, according to the bureau's Web site, data for the current year are projected from past years.

Information from the annual American Community Survey also is incorporated.

For all the data, go to www.census.gov/popest/metro.html

Theresa Churchill can be reached at tchurchill@herald-review.com or 421-7978.