The expansion of state testing in reading and math will put the heaviest pressure on the area's special education students, especially at the junior high level, to make adequate yearly progress.

An analysis of 2005 Illinois Standards Achievement Test results by the Herald & Review shows that nine schools, five of which are middle schools or junior highs, are at risk of failing this year for that reason.

They are Central A&M Middle School, junior highs in Clinton, Effingham, Taylorville and Vandalia, K-8 schools operated by Ramsey and Warrensburg-Latham, and elementary schools in Arcola and St. Elmo.

The newspaper assessed the risk first by determining which schools would likely have the minimum 45 special education students for that subgroup to be measured under the federal No Child Left Behind Act now that all students in grades three through eight will be tested instead of just grades three, five and eight.

Then the Herald & Review identified which of those schools had less than 33.5 percent of its special education students meeting or exceeding state learning goals in either reading or math - the lowest possible percentage they could have and still make adequate yearly progress last year.

Illinois allows schools that much leeway below the 47.5 percent target, if the special education subgroup is the only one failing to hit the mark.

Clinton Junior High, for example, tested 24 students with individualized education programs in eighth grade alone last year, with about 38 percent meeting goals in reading and 14 percent in math. Next week, when the 2006 Illinois Standards Achievement Test is given, grades six and seven will also be tested.

As a result, the school has extended a year-long incentive program in reading to cover math as well.

"Sometimes it's food, sometimes it's extra privileges, and sometimes it's extra credit," said Principal Larry Bethard. "We're also trying to identify the skills to be tested and focusing on those."

Clinton Junior High was also the lone Central Illinois school outside Decatur failing to make adequate yearly progress in 2005 because of performance on the Illinois Standards test, on which just 29 percent of its low-income students met goals in math.

Poverty, which is associated with lower achievement, will also put four other schools at risk of failing to make adequate yearly progress this year - Arcola Elementary, Lovington Elementary, Sangamon Valley's Illiopolis Elementary and Sullivan Middle School.

Sullivan Middle School, for example, tested 24 low-income students last year, and only a third met goals in math.

Principal Joe Marks said the school introduced a new math textbook series, one more closely aligned to state goals, this year.

"We are trying to motivate the kids as if a big game were coming up, and everyone's effort is needed to win," he added.

Fourteen area school districts are also at risk of failing to make adequate yearly progress, although the fate of most will also be determined by how well their 11th-graders perform in reading and math on the Prairie State Achievement Exam given later in the spring.

That test, which is not changing significantly this year, also measures the progress of high schools.

School districts at risk because of special education students are Argenta-Oreana, Maroa-Forsyth, Neoga, Nokomis, St. Elmo, Villa Grove and Warrensburg-Latham, plus those that also failed in 2005 - Lincoln Elementary, Mount Zion, Teutopolis and Vandalia. Another at risk because of low-income students is Lovington.

Those at risk for both reasons are Arcola and Brownstown.

One factor that should mitigate some of the risk, however, was the Illinois State Board of Education's decision Monday to lower the score needed on the eighth-grade math portion of the Illinois Standards test to meet the state learning goal, which also reduces the math scores that will be needed from sixth- and seventh-graders.

The board acted after studies confirmed the perception that the eighth-grade cut score had originally been placed too high in math.

Even so, Becky McCabe, division administrator of student assessment, still expects middle schools and special education students to be hit hard by the expansion of reading and math testing on the Illinois Standards test.

Schools and districts are responding with more co-teaching by special education and regular education teachers, and teaching test-taking strategies.

"We are meeting with schools and districts to help brainstorm ideas," said Debbie Hoffert, director of the Macon-Piatt Special Education District based in Decatur.

Alison Boutcher, assistant director of the Mid-State Special Education District in Taylorville, listed several strategies being tried in Christian County. They include providing incentives for students to do their best on test day and posting the steps needed to write an extended response and practicing them.

Assistant Principal Sheila Brown said all students at Taylorville Junior High will be given their previous scores on the Illinois Standards test this week and will be asked to predict how they will do this year.

"We hope it will be a timely wakeup call," Brown said.

But Sue Ireland, president of the Illinois Alliance of Administrators of Special Education, said current testing methods cause unreasonable stress for special education students and their teachers.

She and McCabe hope a new assessment for some special education students that the federal government will allow in a couple of years will let more schools and districts make adequate yearly progress.

"This failure is not the kids' fault," McCabe said. "It's the system's fault."

School officials second that motion, with top-achieving Mount Zion and Teutopolis districts already having been cited for failing to making adequate yearly progress, and another top-achiever, Maroa-Forsyth, at risk of joining their ranks.

After all, No Child Left Behind requires an increasing percentage of students to meet learning goals, with 100 percent of all students and all subgroups required to by 2014.

"Everyone will fail to make AYP eventually the way the law is written," said Stephen Stenger, superintendent of the Maroa-Forsyth School District. "It's only a matter of time."

Theresa Churchill can be reached at tchurchill@;herald-review.com or 421-7978.