CHAMPAIGN - If the Illini football team beats Northwestern on Saturday to become bowl eligible, the fun could just be beginning as bowl committees, TV networks and league commissioners huddle up to decide which schools go where.

In the process of this behind-the-scenes power struggle, the Illini will have a chance to flex a set of muscles not all the competition can match. Those muscles are the ability to turn on TV sets and the willingness of their fans to travel.

Any discussion of an Illini bowl trip hinges on a victory Saturday at Northwestern. That would make Illinois 6-6, the minimum required to participate in a bowl game.

Even at 6-6, there are no guarantees and the Illini coaches and players realize they could still be left out of the bowl picture. Or, Illinois could land in a cold weather destination like Detroit, which isn't likely to inspire many week-long bowl trips by the fans.

But, some scenarios could develop that might elevate Illinois ahead of teams with better records and, to the delight of Illini fans, place the team in a warm weather site like Tempe, Ariz., where the Big Ten has an arrangement with the Insight Bowl, or at an attractive site without a traditional Big Ten tie-in like San Diego, which hosts the Poinsettia Bowl.

It would be nice to clear up the murky bowl picture now, but that's not possible. Too many scenarios still exist, including uncertainties in the Pac-10 Conference (where Oregon State could muddy the waters by winning the league's automatic Rose Bowl berth).

There are a number of rules (some dictated by the NCAA, some by the Big Ten) that govern the order in which bowls can select their teams. But there are circumstances in which Illinois, with six victories, could leapfrog other conference teams that have more victories.

A perfect example is Minnesota, which beat Illinois head-to-head and which already has seven victories going into Saturday's game against Iowa.

I'm told the Insight Bowl (Dec. 31, Tempe, Ariz.) would rather have Illinois than Minnesota if it can be arranged.

Why?

It's simply because there is a large University of Illinois alumni contingent in the Phoenix area, a healthy population of transplanted Illinoisans who live in the state, and because Illinois packs more of a punch with TV audiences than does Minnesota.

Financially, ticket sales and TV ratings concern the bowl folks, not whose more deserving based on their records.

"Never underestimate the power of TV," one university official said Tuesday.

On Saturday, Illini fans rooting for that scenario should also pull for Iowa to win at Minnesota, which only further justifies the leapfrog maneuver.

So far, most of the bowl thinking has stayed within the framework of the Big Ten and its seven bowl partners. But it's possible for a team like Illinois to find a bowl home elsewhere.

Take the Poinsettia Bowl, for instance. That bowl, to be played on Dec. 23, has an arrangement with the Pac-10 and the Mountain West. The Pac-10, like the Big Ten, has seven bowl agreements (including one in the BCS). But based on the current standings, the league may not be able to fulfill all of its bowl obligations, pushing the Poinsettia Bowl into a search for an at-large substitute.

Illinois also has a strong foothold of support in San Diego, a fact I learned about first-hand when I visited with the enthusiastic San Diego Illini Club in March of 2006 when Illinois played there in the NCAA Basketball Tournament. And Illini fans from the Midwest have a track record of willingness to travel to an attractive, warm-weather spot for post-season play.

On Tuesday, Illini coach Ron Zook said that although he can't promise his team the reward of a specific bowl, he is speaking loud and clear that Saturday's game holds their only hope for a bowl trip.

"That's what makes this game so big," Zook said. "That's a critical thing."

If Illinois wins Saturday, it has one other secret weapon in its corner. Big Ten Commissioner Jim Delany, arguably the most powerful man in college sports, wields great clout with the bowls and their TV partners and he has been good to the Illini over the years.

If there's any way to shoehorn the Illini into the bowl picture, he'll get it done.

First, though, there's the little matter of winning on Saturday.

mtupper@herald-review.com|421-7983